BlogKey Dates To Watch for survival in this Declining Market

Key Dates To Watch for survival in this Declining Market

One of the fundamental reasons why crypto has been having such an absolute shocker recently is because of macroeconomic concerns. Specifically, those relating to inflation and interest rates. A few select sets of numbers are having a massive effect on the prices of cryptocurrencies and other assets besides. 

That is why your stock portfolio hasn’t been much consolation after checking your crypto holdings. Everything is at the mercy of the macro. Key Dates To Watch CPI, GDP, and Fed Interest Rates.

Now as the second half of 2022 gets into its stride we have three really big macro announcements coming this month. Which are going to have a profound influence on crypto and beyond. So get your diaries out and put a big red exclamation mark on the following three dates.

Key Dates To Watch.

So first up we have the 13th of July which is when the u.s inflation figures for June are released. Now inflation figures have been climbing higher and higher over the past few months. As the cost of running the money printer during the pandemic becomes ever more apparent. This figure is certainly going to remain high there’s no doubt about that but it’s a question of how high. 

If it’s higher than the may figure which was an astonishing 8.6 percent. Well, get ready for more red candles. If it’s lower or even just the same we could see the markets rally. This is because the suggestion will be that although inflation figures are still high they may well have finally peaked. The markets will clutch at any straw of good news that they can right now. So any suggestion that inflation may be leveling off will be seen as a positive. 

This very much ties into the next big announcement which will come a fortnight later on the 27th of July. This is when the federal reserve will announce its latest interest rate rise. Recall that last month it hiked rates by 75 basis points three quarters of a percent and markets tumbled. Well if inflation figures are shown to still be rising then expect another 75 bips and more falling prices.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has recently stated that taming inflation figures is his biggest concern and raising interest rates is the only way he can do that. The problem is as rates rise so too does the cost of borrowing and thus so too does the likelihood of a recession.

This brings us to the third big announcement for July which appears the very next day on the 28th. This is the big reveal of the US q2 GDP figures if they show negative growth. As many are expecting the United States of America will officially be in a recession. It will have informed their decision the previous day. 

Remember inflation figures are enemy number one for the fed and it seems like a recession is a price they’re willing to pay to try and bring inflation down. To my mind, all three announcements are unlikely to contain much if any good news.

The best we can hope for is confirmation that inflation has peaked but even that won’t stop rate rises. It might just slow them down rates will go up again on the 27th. It’s just a question of how much they go up by and as to a recession. 

Related: Is a recession coming? or the US in recession

My optimism is focused on the long-term crypto and everything else is in a bear market now and that won’t change until the rate rises start to have a noticeable effect on inflation. That is months maybe years in the future. It’s why I am sitting tight for now but rest assured things will get better in the long run and those who were patient will have their reward.

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